New Scientist Breaking News - Flu pandemic: lethal yet preventable: "If Asian bird flu mutates into a form that spreads easily between humans, an outbreak of just 40 infected people would be enough to cause a global pandemic. And within a year half of the world’s population would be infected with a mortality rate of 50%, according to two studies released on Wednesday.
And yet, the models show, if targeted action is taken within a critical three-week window, an outbreak could be limited to fewer than 100 individuals within two months.
It represents the first opportunity in history to make use of new knowledge and logistics to prevent a pandemic whose potential loss of life could dwarf the horrific 1918 influenza pandemic. But, the researchers caution, we are currently far from ready to take the necessary action.
“If an outbreak occurred tomorrow, it would be devastating,” warns Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London, UK, who led one of the studies. Nature and Science have released the two studies in tandem. The authors stress that an outbreak is no longer an “if” scenario - they are now talking about “when”."
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